Beating a team twice

Is it more difficult to beat a team the second time?

Announcement: I set up a discord server! You can access it here: https://discord.gg/97yBgJqJ I’ve set this up for three main reasons:

• A place for coaches/players interested in coaching to meet and discuss any aspects of coaching they are interested in

• Discussions of bettereveryday articles and book

• Crowdsourcing clips/feedback for future articles

If any of that sounds good to you please feel free to join :)

---

Anytime you are about to watch a game featuring a rematch between teams you’re very likely to hear the commentators trying to add some excitement to the game by repeating the cliche - “it’s hard to beat a team twice”. Is there any truth to this?

I believe this is a real thing. I probably would say that because I’ve benefited from it on multiple occasions - beating Finland and Russia in the quarters and semi of EUC 2019 after losing pool games to them, beating Clapham in the final of EUCF after losing 3 times (at least) to them earlier in the season.

However those are just cherry-picked anecdotes that make me look good. So let’s take a quick look at some limited data from EUC this year, and then I’ll go through some of the reasons why I think this is true.

Sample Data from EUC 2023

I looked at the top 8 teams from each division at EUC*, and tracked their repeat games from the tournament. I looked at if the result changed between the two games, but also what the change in score was. If it’s harder to beat a team the second time we would expect either the result to be flipped, or the scoreline to get tighter. From this data set:

• In 4/15 games the result changed i.e. the team that lost the first game won the second

• In 9/15 games the team that won the first game either won by a smaller margin, or lost the second game

• In 6/15 games the team that won the first game won by a bigger margin

(maybe the cliche should be: it’s harder to beat Italy or Switzerland the second time!)

Why I think it is more difficult to win rematches

Firstly, I think it’s important to say that in a match between two evenly matched teams you can hold all the below factors constant and the result could still flip. A universe point win is one extra turn: a catch held instead of bouncing off the fingertips, a turfed disc that stays up long enough to be caught, a near-block that becomes an actual block.

But it’s not reassuring to think that nothing you do as a coach or player actually matters so here’s some real reasons why it’s harder to win the second time. Or, as I prefer to think about it, reasons why it’s easier to win the rematch!

Psychological Factors

• A primary factor is that for the team that won the first game their incentive is to change nothing: what they did in the first game worked so they should do the same again. For the team that lost the incentive is to change something: what they did in the first game failed, so something new has to be tried. This gives a fairly major edge to the coach of the losing team: they can be reasonably sure the team that won the first game is going to start the game with the same gameplan, which you can adjust for. The team that won the first game does know you will probably adjust but doesn’t know what that adjustment will be until it happens.

• A second factor is that the teams may not have been trying equally hard the first time to win the game. Pool games (or early seasons games) can be handled very differently from team to team in terms of the type of lines they are running and how experimental they are with tactics. ( I should strongly note at this point that this is different from intentionally losing a game, which is a very stupid thing to do.) Certainly my focus is always on winning the tournament and not any particular game so it impacts my behavior in early season/pool games in these ways:

  • I am more likely to be conscious of not overplaying players until it is really critical. So I’m more likely to rest a player with a minor knock, sub out a tired O line, not cross over players between lines, play more even D lines

  • I am more likely to continue to use a tactic that isn’t working in the game to see if we can figure out how to get it working. In a knockout game that’s not happening.

  • On a similar note, I will still be experimenting with what roles a player is playing and more likely to stick with them to see if they can figure out a particular role even if they are struggling. In a knockout game I’m ruthless.

• A third major potential psychological factor is that the team that lost the first game the rematch can feel more like a free hit. You aren’t ‘supposed’ to win the rematch, so you can enter the game with more freedom. For the team that won the first game there is an expectation to win the second which can create tension.

Then of course there are practical factors, too numerous to mention in full. These are what I consider the main three:

• The environment is never the same twice. It’s going to be windier/sunnier/more rainy the second time around. A big change in weather is likely to cause a big shift - it might not be in the direction of the team trying to cause an upset however!

• Player availability can change from game to game. One player can make a surprising difference depending on who they are - the knock-on effects across all lines and tactics of trying to replace an important player can be huge.

• The timing of the games can make a difference. For a team with a small squad, maybe the first game took place as the last game in the day after another tough game and they didn’t have the energy to compete - and the rematch is the first game of another day when they are fresher.

---

*I looked at the top 8 only both because it narrowed down the number of games I needed to look at, but also meant it was more likely that the rematch was a high value game i.e. one to make the bracket, or in the bracket, or for a high placement. Once you get knocked out of the top 8 there are teams that are approaching the games very differently.