EUC Mixed Preview
Final look at the mixed division before play starts tomorrow!
All warmup game results available at the bottom of this post
Welcome to my preview of the Mixed Division for EUC. This is split into two parts - my assessment of the general strength and standings of teams split into tiers and then my speculative predictions of how things will play out.
I’ll be at EUC writing some notes as I go - I’ll be frequently updating using substack’s notes page so make sure to follow me there!
Tier 1
Inner Circle Title Contenders
These 4 teams are the ones we all expected to be the top 4 since rosters started emerging at the start of the year. It hasn’t been a perfectly smooth road to EUC for this group but if the winner doesn’t come from here I would be shocked.
Ireland
A second place finish at Frankfurt Invite and 5th at Windmill doesn’t scream Ireland should be favourites but they remain as my tip to win. I don’t think this is pure blind bias. 16 of this squad have won European championships before and they all did it on the back of a less than outstanding regular season leading up the the tournament. The proven capability of this group to raise their game and make adjustments throughout a tournament give me confidence that they can rise to the occasion again.
One of the big questions arising out of the GRUT loss in quarter is: can this Irish offence line win the disc back enough? GRUT were ruthless in converting every chance they got. Ireland didn’t have Sarah Melvin and Sam Murphy in that game who would be there two best defenders on the line, but it’s looking unlikely the Sam will recover from a broken collar bone in time to play so they’ll need to figure out how to replace that defensive production.
France
After the end of day 1 of Windmill I was ready to acknowledge that France looked like the best team and should be favourite. They had won the invite in Frankfurt and looked dominant again against GB on their way to an undefeated day 1. They’ve got a high powered offence that is super quick and athletic driven by the handling prowess of Gael Ancelin and veteran Nasser Mbae Vogel, defensively they are tall and fast with Pauline Berte and Eva Bornot particular standouts. Up to that point these units had looked smooth and unstoppable.
But then we saw some cracks start to appear.
France lost 3 of their next 4 games. Losing to Germany and Ireland would give some pause to considering them as favourites, but it was the quarter final loss to Italy that was really shocking.
The silver lining for France in that defeat is that it happened at Windmill and not at EUC where they could well matchup against Italy again in quarters. This gives plenty of time to reassess and adjust.
France finished the warmup season with an impressive 8-3 record against national teams - the best of the tier 1 teams.
Germany
Germany were impressive at Windmill, reaching the final and beating both Ireland and France along the way. They lost a swiss draw game to GB before beating them in the semi-final. If this was a shorter tournament I would say momentum is on their side and they would be favourites, but with such a long format I don’t think that is as applicable.
I have been impressed with how Germany have managed their season up to now. Both Ireland and France went into Frankfurt Invite with fairly consistent lines and looks and reaped the reward of that with early victories. Germany too a more open approach and I think that helped them finish out the regular season the strongest. That early experimentation should make adapting during the tournament easier. With changeable weather and rematches aplenty the team that adapts the best is the one that will win.
Germany are headlined by world champion Levke Walczak and big performances by her will be key to Germany’s offence. Nici Prien was doing a tremendous job finding space to keep their offence alive when it broke down at Windmill. On the defensive end I think Germany have the best D line currently - Lena Trautmann and Tim Stuhlert looking like dominant defenders throughout Windmill in particular.
Great Britain
GB had a strange start to their campaign bringing quite a small squad to the Frankfurt Invite, losing each game there as a result. A win against Germany in swiss draw at Windmill is the only win they have against the other Tier 1 teams.
Despite that slow start there is enough star power and experience winning championships on this roster to have a good run and keep GB’s perfect EUC streak going. There have been moments where they have clicked and looked dominant, such as racing into a 3-0 lead over Germany in the semi final of Windmill.
The big concern is that they haven’t looked connected as a team, and they don’t have a non-playing coach to help figure that out. In particular they haven’t looked a good mixed team so far, with their male-matching players dominating the disc. They do have a lot of players experienced at leading teams, and they have Lucy Barnes who was GB World Games coach. There is plenty of time to figure things out and plenty of reason to believe they can.
Tier 2
Dark Horses
Both of these teams are very capable of springing an upset on any of the teams in Tier 1. To contend for this title you need to win 2 or 3 games in a row against the top teams though - I don’t think either of these teams will have the depth to go on a streak like that.
Italy
Italy were not on my radar at all until they shocked France in the quarter final of Windmill. They also pushed GB fairly close in the bronze medal game, losing 14-12 in the end.
This is a very young team with a lot of players that played U24s last week. I think it’ll probably be mentally and physically difficult to play those two tournaments back to back, particularly if a lot of focus from the players was on U24s throughout the season.
The offensive tandem of Nicole Lafiata and David Barzasi is one to watch for, both equally capable of throwing or catching spectacular goals. If those two both have a big game at the same time they are capable of beating anyone. Whether that can happen multiple times, under pressure and now that they everyone is forewarned about them - not sure it’s likely.
Latvia
Latvia haven’t attended any major events in lead up to EUC but have been working together most weeks and have played Lithuania and Norway multiple times in friendlies to prepare.
Headlined by the well established stars Lāsma Kublicka and Arvīds Orlovskis I’m expecting this Latvian team to be very athletic, skilful but not with the depth or battle-hardened experience of the tier 1 teams. None of those tier 1 teams will be taking Latvia lightly in a knockout game however - similarly to Italy, if Latvia’s best players have a good game they would be lucky to get out with a win.
Tier 3
Quarters Hopefuls
There are two quarters spots open after the 6 teams above and I’m expecting it to come from 2 of these teams.
Austria
Austria finished 8th at windmill. They did matchup against a few of the top teams there and shipped heavy defeats to them - 15-6 vs France, 15-7 vs Ireland and 15-5 vs Germany. A 13-4 win against Denmark shows they’re probably a cut above the teams in the categories below. They did also ship a 15-14 loss to Switzerland in Talampaya however - either the Swiss are better than I’m giving them credit for or the Austrians are worse.
Poland
Poland’s national team focus is mostly on mixed this year and they had a fairly good Windmill, finishing 10th with a 13-10 win over Lithuania, a draw with Italy and a 15-6 loss to Germany. I think despite finishing lower than Austria their results are better, and I think they’ll be the best team in this tier.
Hungary
Hungary are complete wildcard. I haven’t seen or heard anything from them. They have been building an incredibly impressive youth scene over the past few years, focused on mixed. Last year the won U-17 and U-20 Mixed at the JJUC. A lot of this team will come from those team - they obviously have talent so we’ll see how well those results translate in what is a very big step up in level.
Lithuania
Lithuanian ultimate is small but has seen some success in recent years in indoors in both open and women’s. Some of the best players from those teams will now be trying to translate that success to grass and I’m excited to see how they get on.
They attended Windmill and finished 14th - the close loss to Poland mentioned above, a comfortable win vs Belgium and a big win vs Norway the only games against National teams. They’ve also played a number of friendlies against Latvia and lost them all - generally losing by around 5 points.
Look out for Eurostar Barbora Kundelytė, as well as Modestas and Dovydas Gauba to lead the fight for this side.
Tier 4
Too Good for the Spoon
All these teams have some quality but unlikely to be challengers for the bracket.
Switzerland
Switzerland came 22nd at Windmill, recording a comfortable win over Norway, universe win over Finland and a 15-12 loss to the Czech Republic. At Talampaya earlier in the season they beat Austria. That result seems like the aberration (and I can’t confirm it now - so maybe I recorded it wrong) so I have Switzerland in a tier below.
Denmark
Denmark came 21st at Windmill, losing every game they played to a national team. 15-9 to Ireland, 13-4 to Austria and close 11-9 loss to Finland. Nothing to suggest that they are going to break out of this tier.
Finland
As Finland don’t have an open or women’s team attending EUC, it looked like we could get another dark horse team coming from Finland. However it seems like a lot of the top players from Otso/Athletico are not playing and a finish of 18th at Windmill indicates that this is a less experienced Finland team. They lost 15-2 to GB and 9-8 to Switzerland but did beat both Denmark and Belgium.
Belgium
With Belgium having contenders in both open and women’s it’s no surprise that their mixed team isn’t as strong this year. Belgium finished 24th at Windmill, losing 12-8 to Finland and 15-5 to Lithuania. They did however draw 11-11 with the Czech Republic.
Czech Republic
Similar to Belgium, both in results so far this year and that their open and women’s teams are both contenders for EUC. Czechs finished 19th at Windmill with a 15-12 win over Switzerland and the aforementioned draw with Belgium the only games against national team sides.
Tier 5
Trying to avoid the Spoon
These are the sides I’m expecting to battle out to not come last
Slovakia
I might be way off on Slovakia because we haven’t seen anything from them, and Slovakia haven’t had great success in the past. If they do win a few games I expect a lot to be on the back of Filip Molnár who played superbly for the Netherlands U24 team last week and looks like a star in the making.
Norway
Not a very promising warmup season for Norway, finishing 38th at Windmill and losing all 6 games they have played to other national teams. They’ve been working hard and will be looking to catch someone off guard to pick up a win along the way.
Bracket Predictions
You may notice there are differences between my tiers and the results predicted. The tiers are intended to be more of an objective look at the general strength of teams. These bracket predictions are my subjective predictions on individual matchups and include some speculation on where I think teams may under/over perform.
Review of the format here
Group B is very interesting and would not be surprised to see a 3 way tie for first or second here
Power Pool F is going to be a lot of fun. There’s really no advantage to coming first in the pool because you will actually almost definitely have a harder quarter than if you come second or third. How are teams going to play this - experiment to prepare for the bracket or focus on winning each game as it comes? This is where good non-playing coaching will shine.
As has been covered extensively, France have a fairly straightforward passage to the bracket. With the volume of games against the top teams they’ve already played going in this should work to their advantage in terms of rest.
Potential France vs Italy quarter final rematch.
Let’s go Ireland
You didn’t seriously think I would pick anyone else to win I hope
I’ll be there to watch all the excitement and write a bit about the games so if you see me say hello. I’ll mostly be hanging around with this guy so should be easy to find.
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